Everyday Killings in Mexico Decline Over a Third During the Sheinbaum Administration, According to Official Data

The average figure of per-day killings per month in Mexico has dropped by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, according to new official statistics. But, security analysts have warned that murder figures may not indicate improved national stability.

Significant Decline in Per-Day Numbers

Officials reported an mean of almost 55 homicides a day in last November versus nearly 87 when Sheinbaum assumed the presidency in September. This data was shared by the director of the nation's federal safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular news conference on Tuesday.

“The result in homicides that we’ve had during these months is extremely significant,” Claudia Sheinbaum stated, explaining that the previous month the least figure of murders were documented for any November in the past decade.

Recent Background and Government Plan

Violent drug cartel internal conflicts, combined with the administration's heavily militarised efforts to take on the cartels, have caused Mexico’s homicide numbers escalate in the past few years. The figure peaked at a record high of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the country’s national statistics agency.

That meant Mexico a murder rate more than 4x higher than that of the United States. Since then, killings have been on the decline, falling to 33,550 last year. The President has credited her public safety strategy for an seemingly sharper decline in killings in the current year.

At a media briefing in August, the President said: “There is a plan, there is monitoring of the plan, and there is specific tracking town by town in certain cases. The strategy is effective. And we have to keep working at it every day.”

The key pillars of Sheinbaum’s safety plan include:

• Bolstering Mexico’s national guard.
• Enhancing information gathering and investigative capabilities.
• Greater cooperation between government departments.

Expert Caution and Data Concerns

However, security analysts urged caution that using homicide statistics to paint a picture of improved security was problematic. This is especially true considering the rise in different crimes such as forced disappearances.

“That would be excellent information if this were a decrease, but I think we shouldn't just look at the homicide numbers and say: ‘Well then, great,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican criminal organizations. “I would be tentatively positive.”

According to the policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders in total dropped by over 20% in the initial 10 months of this year versus the same period the previous year. Yet, missing persons cases have gone up by 15% and in certain regions have increased by up to 200%.

“Data on homicides is not reliable for estimating the situation of public insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and investigators who do not have the capacity or the inclination to properly identify and categorize bodies. Second, organized [criminals] … have the means to conceal violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas pointed out that using monthly averages of daily homicides was additionally problematic because it could obscure periods when there were particularly high numbers of murders.

“Relying on the per-day mean makes spikes of violence unseen,” he said.

Detentions and Confiscations as Measures of Success

Where the government can cite the effectiveness of its security plan is on arrests and confiscations. Close to 40,000 suspects were apprehended between October 2024 and this past November for high-impact crimes, per official figures. Over 20,000 weapons were taken and 311 tons of drugs intercepted.

“Trump cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these thousands of arrests, thousands of seizures, and all the operational degrading of organised crime. It’s very in political terms beneficial,” stated Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Public Anger

Yet despite these measures, Mexico continues to be grappling with severe bloodshed, with a number of states in the throes of cartel-related violence. Last month there was a notable murder of a well-liked mayor in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders assassinated in the past year.

Weeks later, many thousands of youth demonstrated in Mexico City and throughout the nation to show their anger at graft and cartel violence.

“The federal government shares [data] in a way to construct a picture of improvement. Politically it’s highly successful, socially it’s very problematic,” Vargas said.