🔗 Share this article

Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. They writes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Arguments cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but each side has got something to learn from the alternative positions."

Call for Broader Dialogue

Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."